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Developmentmixed usedevelopmentmixed-usestaggered-incometiming-mismatch

Staggered Mixed-Use — Retail + Daycare + Sportsplex

$6,661,065Nashville, TNShared Mar 17, 2026by DealForge

Investment Score

0/ 100

Weak

Significant risk. Cash-on-Cash is critically weak. Consider walking away.

Score Breakdown

Yield on Cost
19
Dev Spread
0
DSCR
10
IRR
0
Cash-on-Cash
0
Equity Multiple
34

Walk Away

At $6,661,065 all-in cost and $343,380 stabilized NOI, the project doesn't cover its permanent debt. Unless you can cut costs or increase rents significantly, this doesn't pencil.

What Does the Project Actually Cost?

Land: $900,000 + Closing: $30,000 + Entitlement: $150,000 Hard Costs: $4,200,000 + Soft Costs: $588,000 (14%) + Contingency: $420,000 (10%) Carry Costs: $168,000 (14 months × $12,000/mo) Construction Loan Interest: $205,065 **Total Development Cost: $6,661,065** Equity Required: $3,015,465 ✓ Contingency at 10% provides a reasonable buffer.

What Will It Produce at Stabilization?

Gross Potential Income: $552,000 Effective Gross Income: $524,280 (after vacancy) Operating Expenses: $180,900 **Stabilized NOI: $343,380** Development Yield (NOI ÷ Total Cost): 5.2% Exit Cap Rate: 6.5% Development Spread: -1.3% ⚠ Development spread under 1% doesn't justify the construction risk. You could buy stabilized at similar returns.

Permanent Financing Test

Permanent Loan: $4,725,000 @ 6.5% for 25 years Monthly Mortgage: $31,904 Annual Debt Service: $382,842 Stabilized NOI ($343,380) − Debt ($382,842) = -$39,462/yr DSCR: 0.90x 🚫 DSCR below 1.0 — the project won't cover permanent debt at these numbers.

Key Metrics

Total Dev Cost

$6,661,065

Dev Yield

5.16%

Dev Spread

-1.34%

DSCR

0.90

Stabilized NOI

$343,380

Cash-on-Cash

-1.31%

IRR

-10.54%

Equity Multiple

1.51x

Share This Analysis

Staggered Mixed-Use — Retail + Daycare + Sportsplex
Market: Nashville, TN
Purchase price: $6,661,065
Dev Yield: 5.16%
DSCR: 0.90
Stabilized NOI: $343,380
Score: 0/100
Verdict: Walk Away
Full analysis: dealforgehq.com/share/example-staggered-mixed-use-development

Copy with a discussion prompt — ready to post

Financing Terms

Loan Type

conventional

Down Payment

25%

Interest Rate

6.5%

Loan Term

25 years

Full Analysis

What Does the Project Actually Cost?
Land: $900,000 + Closing: $30,000 + Entitlement: $150,000 Hard Costs: $4,200,000 + Soft Costs: $588,000 (14%) + Contingency: $420,000 (10%) Carry Costs: $168,000 (14 months × $12,000/mo) Construction Loan Interest: $205,065 **Total Development Cost: $6,661,065** Equity Required: $3,015,465 ✓ Contingency at 10% provides a reasonable buffer.
What Will It Produce at Stabilization?
Gross Potential Income: $552,000 Effective Gross Income: $524,280 (after vacancy) Operating Expenses: $180,900 **Stabilized NOI: $343,380** Development Yield (NOI ÷ Total Cost): 5.2% Exit Cap Rate: 6.5% Development Spread: -1.3% ⚠ Development spread under 1% doesn't justify the construction risk. You could buy stabilized at similar returns.
Permanent Financing Test
Permanent Loan: $4,725,000 @ 6.5% for 25 years Monthly Mortgage: $31,904 Annual Debt Service: $382,842 Stabilized NOI ($343,380) − Debt ($382,842) = -$39,462/yr DSCR: 0.90x 🚫 DSCR below 1.0 — the project won't cover permanent debt at these numbers.
Return Profile
Stabilized Value: $5,282,769 Value Created: -$1,378,296 Cash-on-Cash Return: -1.3% ROI (5-Year): -49.2% IRR: -10.5% Equity Multiple: 1.51x
Risk Flags
• Negative cash flow against permanent financing • Development spread of -1.3% doesn't justify construction risk • Cash-on-cash of -1.3% is below typical development targets • All income sources have start delays — no immediate revenue after construction
My Straight Answer
At $6,661,065 all-in cost and $343,380 stabilized NOI, the project doesn't cover its permanent debt. Unless you can cut costs or increase rents significantly, this doesn't pencil.

Benchmarks used in this analysis (cap rates, SDE multiples, expense ratios) are derived from national averages by asset class and business type, drawing on industry data sources such as CBRE, Marcus & Millichap, BizBuySell, and IBBA market reports. These are broad benchmarks — they are NOT specific to your local market. Actual cap rates, multiples, and pricing in your area may differ significantly based on local supply/demand, population trends, economic conditions, and comparable sales. Always validate with local comps, broker opinion, and an independent appraisal before making an offer.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. All projections are estimates based on user-provided inputs. Conduct independent due diligence before making financial decisions.

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